Intrinsic Value
PROGRESSIVE CORP/OH/ · PGR
Conservative
More adverse but historically defensible assumptions.
$67.47
Base
The model's central intrinsic-value estimate.
$118.61
Optimistic
More favorable but historically defensible assumptions.
$324.95
Scenarios are the same model run under different but historically defensible assumptions. They are not price targets. Where a valuation gap is shown it is a comparison with a recent close, not a forecast return; where the price is stale, no gap is shown at all.
Model confidence: 84%Valuation as of Sep 21, 2026Latest filing used Mar 2, 2026
Confidence reflects data completeness, accounting quality, and model reliability. It is not a probability of future price.
Valuation drivers
- Normalized ROE
- 19.4%
- Cost of equity
- 10.24%
- Terminal ROE
- 14.8%
- Terminal growth
- 2.50%
- Book common equity
- $30.3B
- Intrinsic common equity
- $69.8B
- Terminal-value share
- 24.6%
Model notes (6)
- Forecast payout capped at 100% of earnings left the demonstrated range (Conservative case)
- ROTCE unavailable — tangible common equity is not reported(FY2014–FY2025)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 14.1%(FY2021)
- Book-value rollforward residual of -8.5%(FY2024)
- Book-value rollforward residual of -17.3%(FY2025)
- Combined ratio unavailable — partial insurance expense coverage
Model details
- Normalization
- V1
- Scenario
- V2
- Confidence
- V1
- Engine version
- valuation-1.0.1-share-units-terminal
- Data snapshot
- filed:2026-03-02