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Intrinsic Value

OCTAVE SPECIALTY GROUP INC · OSG

Residual Income

Conservative

More adverse but historically defensible assumptions.

$1.62

Base

The model's central intrinsic-value estimate.

-$2.70

Optimistic

More favorable but historically defensible assumptions.

-$7.99

Scenarios are the same model run under different but historically defensible assumptions. They are not price targets. Where a valuation gap is shown it is a comparison with a recent close, not a forecast return; where the price is stale, no gap is shown at all.

Model confidence: 66%Valuation as of Sep 21, 2026Latest filing used Mar 4, 2026

Confidence reflects data completeness, accounting quality, and model reliability. It is not a probability of future price.

Valuation drivers
Normalized ROE
-14.1%
Cost of equity
10.24%
Terminal ROE
-1.9%
Terminal growth
2.50%
Book common equity
$715.8M
Intrinsic common equity
-$127.5M
Terminal-value share
148.2%
Model notes (23)
  • Intrinsic value is below book; the forecast return does not cover the cost of equity (Base case)
  • Terminal value is 148% of intrinsic equity value (Base case)
  • Forecast payout capped at 100% of earnings left the demonstrated range (Conservative case)
  • Intrinsic value is below book; the forecast return does not cover the cost of equity (Conservative case)
  • Terminal value is -80% of intrinsic equity value (Conservative case)
  • ROTCE unavailable — tangible common equity is not reported(FY2014–FY2020)
  • Book-value rollforward residual of 10.7%(FY2024)
  • Book-value rollforward residual of -6.5%(FY2025)
  • Intrinsic value is below book; the forecast return does not cover the cost of equity (Optimistic case)
  • Terminal value is 107% of intrinsic equity value (Optimistic case)
  • Combined ratio unavailable — partial insurance expense coverage
  • Terminal return on equity is below the cost of equity; terminal value is negative
  • Terminal roe not positive retention undefined
  • Year 10 forecast net income negative payout suspended
  • Year 1 forecast net income negative payout suspended
  • Year 2 forecast net income negative payout suspended
  • Year 3 forecast net income negative payout suspended
  • Year 4 forecast net income negative payout suspended
  • Year 5 forecast net income negative payout suspended
  • Year 6 forecast net income negative payout suspended
  • Year 7 forecast net income negative payout suspended
  • Year 8 forecast net income negative payout suspended
  • Year 9 forecast net income negative payout suspended
Model details
Normalization
V1
Scenario
V2
Confidence
V1
Engine version
valuation-1.0.1-share-units-terminal
Data snapshot
filed:2026-03-04