Intrinsic Value
OLD REPUBLIC INTERNATIONAL CORP · ORI
Conservative
More adverse but historically defensible assumptions.
$22.35
Base
The model's central intrinsic-value estimate.
$27.41
Optimistic
More favorable but historically defensible assumptions.
$66.30
Scenarios are the same model run under different but historically defensible assumptions. They are not price targets. Where a valuation gap is shown it is a comparison with a recent close, not a forecast return; where the price is stale, no gap is shown at all.
Model confidence: 85%Valuation as of Sep 21, 2026Latest filing used Feb 26, 2026
Confidence reflects data completeness, accounting quality, and model reliability. It is not a probability of future price.
Valuation drivers
- Normalized ROE
- 11.7%
- Cost of equity
- 10.24%
- Terminal ROE
- 11.0%
- Terminal growth
- 2.50%
- Book common equity
- $5.9B
- Intrinsic common equity
- $6.9B
- Terminal-value share
- 5.7%
Model notes (10)
- Forecast payout capped at 100% of earnings left the demonstrated range (Conservative case)
- Intrinsic value is below book; the forecast return does not cover the cost of equity (Conservative case)
- ROTCE unavailable — tangible common equity is not reported(FY2014–FY2025)
- Book-value rollforward residual of -7.4%(FY2015)
- Book-value rollforward residual of -5.7%(FY2017)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 23.6%(FY2018)
- Book-value rollforward residual of -5.4%(FY2020)
- Book-value rollforward residual of -8.2%(FY2024)
- Combined ratio unavailable — partial insurance expense coverage
- Terminal return on equity is below the cost of equity; terminal value is negative
Model details
- Normalization
- V1
- Scenario
- V2
- Confidence
- V1
- Engine version
- valuation-1.0.1-share-units-terminal
- Data snapshot
- filed:2026-02-26