Intrinsic Value
OLD NATIONAL BANCORP /IN/ · ONB
Conservative
More adverse but historically defensible assumptions.
$18.85
Base
The model's central intrinsic-value estimate.
$20.88
Optimistic
More favorable but historically defensible assumptions.
$44.45
Scenarios are the same model run under different but historically defensible assumptions. They are not price targets. Where a valuation gap is shown it is a comparison with a recent close, not a forecast return; where the price is stale, no gap is shown at all.
Model confidence: 86%Valuation as of Sep 21, 2026Latest filing used Feb 19, 2026
Confidence reflects data completeness, accounting quality, and model reliability. It is not a probability of future price.
Valuation drivers
- Normalized ROE
- 9.2%
- Cost of equity
- 9.95%
- Terminal ROE
- 9.6%
- Terminal growth
- 2.50%
- Book common equity
- $8.3B
- Intrinsic common equity
- $7.6B
- Terminal-value share
- -3.2%
Model notes (15)
- Intrinsic value is below book; the forecast return does not cover the cost of equity (Base case)
- Forecast payout capped at 100% of earnings left the demonstrated range (Conservative case)
- Intrinsic value is below book; the forecast return does not cover the cost of equity (Conservative case)
- ROTCE unavailable — tangible common equity is not reported(FY2014)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 15.6%(FY2016)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 14.4%(FY2017)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 15.7%(FY2018)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 50.8%(FY2022)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 7.5%(FY2024)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 18.5%(FY2025)
- Net charge-offs unavailable
- Net interest income to assets is a proxy; average earning assets are unavailable so no net interest margin is published
- Non-performing loans unavailable
- Regulatory capital constraint unavailable
- Terminal return on equity is below the cost of equity; terminal value is negative
Model details
- Normalization
- V1
- Scenario
- V2
- Confidence
- V1
- Engine version
- valuation-1.0.1-share-units-terminal
- Data snapshot
- filed:2026-02-19