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Intrinsic Value

Lemonade, Inc. · LMND

Residual Income

Conservative

More adverse but historically defensible assumptions.

$0.13

Base

The model's central intrinsic-value estimate.

-$0.42

Optimistic

More favorable but historically defensible assumptions.

-$1.20

Scenarios are the same model run under different but historically defensible assumptions. They are not price targets. Where a valuation gap is shown it is a comparison with a recent close, not a forecast return; where the price is stale, no gap is shown at all.

Model confidence: 58%Valuation as of Sep 21, 2026Latest filing used Feb 25, 2026

Confidence reflects data completeness, accounting quality, and model reliability. It is not a probability of future price.

Valuation drivers
Normalized ROE
-30.5%
Cost of equity
10.24%
Terminal ROE
-10.1%
Terminal growth
2.50%
Book common equity
$533.6M
Intrinsic common equity
-$31M
Terminal-value share
135.5%
Model notes (26)
  • Intrinsic value is below book; the forecast return does not cover the cost of equity (Base case)
  • Terminal value is 136% of intrinsic equity value (Base case)
  • Intrinsic value is below book; the forecast return does not cover the cost of equity (Conservative case)
  • Terminal value is -221% of intrinsic equity value (Conservative case)
  • ROTCE unavailable — tangible common equity is not reported(FY2020–FY2021)
  • Book-value rollforward residual of 70.2%(FY2021)
  • Book-value rollforward residual of 23.1%(FY2022)
  • Book-value rollforward residual of 8.5%(FY2023)
  • Book-value rollforward residual of 14.1%(FY2024)
  • Book-value rollforward residual of 17.5%(FY2025)
  • Intrinsic value is below book; the forecast return does not cover the cost of equity (Optimistic case)
  • Terminal value is 90% of intrinsic equity value (Optimistic case)
  • Combined ratio unavailable — partial insurance expense coverage
  • Terminal growth exceeds what the terminal return can fund; retention capped at 100%
  • Terminal return on equity is below the cost of equity; terminal value is negative
  • Terminal roe not positive retention undefined
  • Year 10 forecast net income negative payout suspended
  • Year 1 forecast net income negative payout suspended
  • Year 2 forecast net income negative payout suspended
  • Year 3 forecast net income negative payout suspended
  • Year 4 forecast net income negative payout suspended
  • Year 5 forecast net income negative payout suspended
  • Year 6 forecast net income negative payout suspended
  • Year 7 forecast net income negative payout suspended
  • Year 8 forecast net income negative payout suspended
  • Year 9 forecast net income negative payout suspended
Model details
Normalization
V1
Scenario
V2
Confidence
V1
Engine version
valuation-1.0.1-share-units-terminal
Data snapshot
filed:2026-02-25