Intrinsic Value
HARLEY-DAVIDSON, INC. · HOG
Conservative
More adverse but historically defensible assumptions.
$19.53
Base
The model's central intrinsic-value estimate.
$23.96
Optimistic
More favorable but historically defensible assumptions.
$69.53
Scenarios are the same model run under different but historically defensible assumptions. They are not price targets. Where a valuation gap is shown it is a comparison with a recent close, not a forecast return; where the price is stale, no gap is shown at all.
Model confidence: 69%Valuation as of Sep 21, 2026Latest filing used Feb 26, 2026
Confidence reflects data completeness, accounting quality, and model reliability. It is not a probability of future price.
Valuation drivers
- Normalized operating margin
- 14.0%
- Normalized NOPAT margin
- 11.0%
- Revenue growth
- -6.2%
- WACC
- 7.19%
- Terminal growth
- 0.00%
- Reinvestment method
- capital turnover
- Terminal-value share
- 28.1%
Model details
- Normalization
- V1
- Scenario
- V2
- Confidence
- V1
- Engine version
- valuation-1.0.1-share-units-terminal
- Data snapshot
- filed:2026-02-26