Intrinsic Value
HORACE MANN EDUCATORS CORP /DE/ · HMN
Conservative
More adverse but historically defensible assumptions.
$26.45
Base
The model's central intrinsic-value estimate.
$27.87
Optimistic
More favorable but historically defensible assumptions.
$55.45
Scenarios are the same model run under different but historically defensible assumptions. They are not price targets. Where a valuation gap is shown it is a comparison with a recent close, not a forecast return; where the price is stale, no gap is shown at all.
Model confidence: 82%Valuation as of Sep 21, 2026Latest filing used Feb 27, 2026
Confidence reflects data completeness, accounting quality, and model reliability. It is not a probability of future price.
Valuation drivers
- Normalized ROE
- 7.9%
- Cost of equity
- 10.24%
- Terminal ROE
- 9.1%
- Terminal growth
- 2.50%
- Book common equity
- $1.5B
- Intrinsic common equity
- $1.2B
- Terminal-value share
- -10.4%
Model notes (14)
- Intrinsic value is below book; the forecast return does not cover the cost of equity (Base case)
- Forecast payout capped at 100% of earnings left the demonstrated range (Conservative case)
- Intrinsic value is below book; the forecast return does not cover the cost of equity (Conservative case)
- Book-value rollforward residual of -9.7%(FY2015)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 5.6%(FY2017)
- Book-value rollforward residual of -14.2%(FY2018)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 8.9%(FY2019)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 7.8%(FY2020)
- Book-value rollforward residual of -61.0%(FY2022)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 8.2%(FY2023)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 5.0%(FY2024)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 6.1%(FY2025)
- Combined ratio unavailable — partial insurance expense coverage
- Terminal return on equity is below the cost of equity; terminal value is negative
Model details
- Normalization
- V1
- Scenario
- V2
- Confidence
- V1
- Engine version
- valuation-1.0.1-share-units-terminal
- Data snapshot
- filed:2026-02-27