Intrinsic Value
HCI Group, Inc. · HCI
Conservative
More adverse but historically defensible assumptions.
$82.02
Base
The model's central intrinsic-value estimate.
$106.87
Optimistic
More favorable but historically defensible assumptions.
$239.73
Scenarios are the same model run under different but historically defensible assumptions. They are not price targets. Where a valuation gap is shown it is a comparison with a recent close, not a forecast return; where the price is stale, no gap is shown at all.
Model confidence: 78%Valuation as of Sep 21, 2026Latest filing used Feb 26, 2026
Confidence reflects data completeness, accounting quality, and model reliability. It is not a probability of future price.
Valuation drivers
- Normalized ROE
- 13.2%
- Cost of equity
- 10.24%
- Terminal ROE
- 11.7%
- Terminal growth
- 2.50%
- Book common equity
- $1B
- Intrinsic common equity
- $1.4B
- Terminal-value share
- 10.1%
Model notes (10)
- Forecast payout capped at 100% of earnings left the demonstrated range (Conservative case)
- ROTCE unavailable — tangible common equity is not reported(FY2014–FY2025)
- Book-value rollforward residual of -6.0%(FY2016)
- Book-value rollforward residual of -6.5%(FY2018)
- Book-value rollforward residual of -6.4%(FY2019)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 42.3%(FY2021)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 7.4%(FY2024)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 29.5%(FY2025)
- Combined ratio unavailable — partial insurance expense coverage
- Share count method: ending shares fallback
Model details
- Normalization
- V1
- Scenario
- V2
- Confidence
- V1
- Engine version
- valuation-1.0.1-share-units-terminal
- Data snapshot
- filed:2026-02-26