Intrinsic Value
FIRST NATIONAL CORP /VA/ · FXNC
Conservative
More adverse but historically defensible assumptions.
$19.48
Base
The model's central intrinsic-value estimate.
$23.98
Optimistic
More favorable but historically defensible assumptions.
$56.48
Scenarios are the same model run under different but historically defensible assumptions. They are not price targets. Where a valuation gap is shown it is a comparison with a recent close, not a forecast return; where the price is stale, no gap is shown at all.
Model confidence: 81%Valuation as of Sep 21, 2026Latest filing used Mar 25, 2026
Confidence reflects data completeness, accounting quality, and model reliability. It is not a probability of future price.
Valuation drivers
- Normalized ROE
- 11.3%
- Cost of equity
- 9.95%
- Terminal ROE
- 10.6%
- Terminal growth
- 2.50%
- Book common equity
- $186.2M
- Intrinsic common equity
- $216.4M
- Terminal-value share
- 5.8%
Model notes (11)
- Forecast payout capped at 100% of earnings left the demonstrated range (Conservative case)
- Intrinsic value is below book; the forecast return does not cover the cost of equity (Conservative case)
- ROTCE unavailable — tangible common equity is not reported(FY2014–FY2020)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 23.4%(FY2021)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 28.4%(FY2024)
- Net charge-offs unavailable
- Net interest income to assets is a proxy; average earning assets are unavailable so no net interest margin is published
- Non-performing loans unavailable
- Regulatory capital constraint unavailable
- Share count method: ending shares fallback
- Terminal return on equity is below the cost of equity; terminal value is negative
Model details
- Normalization
- V1
- Scenario
- V2
- Confidence
- V1
- Engine version
- valuation-1.0.1-share-units-terminal
- Data snapshot
- filed:2026-03-25