Intrinsic Value
CATERPILLAR INC · CAT
Conservative
More adverse but historically defensible assumptions.
$232.51
Base
The model's central intrinsic-value estimate.
$411.99
Optimistic
More favorable but historically defensible assumptions.
$880.58
Scenarios are the same model run under different but historically defensible assumptions. They are not price targets. Where a valuation gap is shown it is a comparison with a recent close, not a forecast return; where the price is stale, no gap is shown at all.
Model confidence: 86%Valuation as of Sep 21, 2026Latest filing used Feb 13, 2026
Confidence reflects data completeness, accounting quality, and model reliability. It is not a probability of future price.
Valuation drivers
- Operating value
- $199.7B
- Finance value
- $5.6B
- Non-finance debt
- $10.7B
- SOTP total
- $194.6B
- Operating WACC
- 8.23%
- Finance cost of equity
- 9.95%
Model notes (10)
- Forecast payout capped at 100% of earnings left the demonstrated range (Conservative case)
- Captive finance arm: funded by wholesale debt and parent capital rather than deposits; no bank deposit franchise is modelled
- Consolidated cash includes the finance arm's balances and is not attributed to the operating side; corporate cash is left at zero rather than split
- Excess cash unavailable — no cash balance reported
- Finance debt is inside the finance equity value and is not deducted at the bridge
- Interest-bearing debt unavailable
- Minority interest not reported
- No intercompany balance is tagged; the elimination cannot be quantified, though it nets within the operating/finance pair
- No preferred equity is reported at the parent
- Preferred equity not reported
Model details
- Normalization
- V1
- Scenario
- V2
- Confidence
- V1
- Engine version
- hybrid-sotp-1.0.1
- Data snapshot
- filed:2026-02-13