Intrinsic Value
AMERICAN EXPRESS CO · AXP
Conservative
More adverse but historically defensible assumptions.
$97.82
Base
The model's central intrinsic-value estimate.
$173.36
Optimistic
More favorable but historically defensible assumptions.
$721.52
Scenarios are the same model run under different but historically defensible assumptions. They are not price targets. Where a valuation gap is shown it is a comparison with a recent close, not a forecast return; where the price is stale, no gap is shown at all.
Model confidence: 82%Valuation as of Sep 21, 2026Latest filing used Feb 6, 2026
Confidence reflects data completeness, accounting quality, and model reliability. It is not a probability of future price.
Valuation drivers
- Normalized ROE
- 31.7%
- Cost of equity
- 9.95%
- Terminal ROE
- 20.8%
- Terminal growth
- 2.50%
- Book common equity
- $33.5B
- Intrinsic common equity
- $120.7B
- Terminal-value share
- 30.1%
Model notes (10)
- Forecast payout capped at 100% of earnings left the demonstrated range (Conservative case)
- ROTCE unavailable — tangible common equity is not reported(FY2014–FY2025)
- Book-value rollforward residual of -6.4%(FY2018)
- Book-value rollforward residual of -19.4%(FY2019)
- Book-value rollforward residual of -7.1%(FY2020)
- Book-value rollforward residual of -33.6%(FY2021)
- Net charge-offs unavailable
- Net interest income to assets is a proxy; average earning assets are unavailable so no net interest margin is published
- Non-performing loans unavailable
- Regulatory capital constraint unavailable
Model details
- Normalization
- V1
- Scenario
- V2
- Confidence
- V1
- Engine version
- valuation-1.0.1-share-units-terminal
- Data snapshot
- filed:2026-02-06