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Intrinsic Value

Astrana Health, Inc. · ASTH

Residual Income

Conservative

More adverse but historically defensible assumptions.

$12.79

Base

The model's central intrinsic-value estimate.

$14.15

Optimistic

More favorable but historically defensible assumptions.

$28.78

Scenarios are the same model run under different but historically defensible assumptions. They are not price targets. Where a valuation gap is shown it is a comparison with a recent close, not a forecast return; where the price is stale, no gap is shown at all.

Model confidence: 63%Valuation as of Sep 21, 2026Latest filing used Mar 12, 2026

Confidence reflects data completeness, accounting quality, and model reliability. It is not a probability of future price.

Valuation drivers
Normalized ROE
9.1%
Cost of equity
10.24%
Terminal ROE
9.6%
Terminal growth
2.50%
Book common equity
$779.3M
Intrinsic common equity
$691.5M
Terminal-value share
-4.8%
Model notes (17)
  • Intrinsic value is below book; the forecast return does not cover the cost of equity (Base case)
  • Forecast payout capped at 100% of earnings left the demonstrated range (Conservative case)
  • Intrinsic value is below book; the forecast return does not cover the cost of equity (Conservative case)
  • Book-value rollforward residual of -842.3%(FY2015)
  • Book-value rollforward residual of -2793.4%(FY2016)
  • Book-value rollforward residual of 91.3%(FY2017)
  • Book-value rollforward residual of 17.9%(FY2018)
  • Book-value rollforward residual of 34.2%(FY2019)
  • Book-value rollforward residual of 46.3%(FY2020)
  • Book-value rollforward residual of 10.2%(FY2021)
  • Book-value rollforward residual of 12.2%(FY2022)
  • Book-value rollforward residual of 13.5%(FY2023)
  • Book-value rollforward residual of 8.3%(FY2024)
  • Book-value rollforward residual of 6.7%(FY2025)
  • Combined ratio unavailable — partial insurance expense coverage
  • Share count method: ending shares fallback
  • Terminal return on equity is below the cost of equity; terminal value is negative
Model details
Normalization
V1
Scenario
V2
Confidence
V1
Engine version
valuation-1.0.1-share-units-terminal
Data snapshot
filed:2026-03-12