Intrinsic Value
AFLAC INC · AFL
Conservative
More adverse but historically defensible assumptions.
$72.91
Base
The model's central intrinsic-value estimate.
$99.60
Optimistic
More favorable but historically defensible assumptions.
$278.16
Scenarios are the same model run under different but historically defensible assumptions. They are not price targets. Where a valuation gap is shown it is a comparison with a recent close, not a forecast return; where the price is stale, no gap is shown at all.
Model confidence: 81%Valuation as of Sep 21, 2026Latest filing used Feb 25, 2026
Confidence reflects data completeness, accounting quality, and model reliability. It is not a probability of future price.
Valuation drivers
- Normalized ROE
- 18.6%
- Cost of equity
- 10.24%
- Terminal ROE
- 14.4%
- Terminal growth
- 2.50%
- Book common equity
- $29.5B
- Intrinsic common equity
- $53.3B
- Terminal-value share
- 16.7%
Model notes (13)
- Forecast payout capped at 100% of earnings left the demonstrated range (Conservative case)
- ROTCE unavailable — tangible common equity is not reported(FY2014–FY2025)
- Book-value rollforward residual of -6.8%(FY2015)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 10.7%(FY2016)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 6.2%(FY2017)
- Book-value rollforward residual of -8.4%(FY2018)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 15.9%(FY2019)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 6.3%(FY2020)
- Book-value rollforward residual of -52.4%(FY2022)
- Book-value rollforward residual of -5.8%(FY2023)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 9.8%(FY2024)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 15.2%(FY2025)
- Combined ratio unavailable — partial insurance expense coverage
Model details
- Normalization
- V1
- Scenario
- V2
- Confidence
- V1
- Engine version
- valuation-1.0.1-share-units-terminal
- Data snapshot
- filed:2026-02-25