Intrinsic Value
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC · AAP
Conservative
More adverse but historically defensible assumptions.
$76.99
Base
The model's central intrinsic-value estimate.
$113.78
Optimistic
More favorable but historically defensible assumptions.
$217.34
Scenarios are the same model run under different but historically defensible assumptions. They are not price targets. Where a valuation gap is shown it is a comparison with a recent close, not a forecast return; where the price is stale, no gap is shown at all.
Model confidence: 79%Valuation as of Sep 21, 2026Latest filing used Feb 13, 2026
Confidence reflects data completeness, accounting quality, and model reliability. It is not a probability of future price.
Valuation drivers
- Normalized operating margin
- 6.4%
- Normalized NOPAT margin
- 4.9%
- Revenue growth
- 1.3%
- WACC
- 6.16%
- Terminal growth
- 1.34%
- Reinvestment method
- incremental roic
- Terminal-value share
- 62.8%
Model notes (3)
- Terminal value is 86% of enterprise value (Optimistic case)
- Minority interest not reported
- Preferred equity not reported
Model details
- Normalization
- V1
- Scenario
- V2
- Confidence
- V1
- Engine version
- valuation-1.0.1-share-units-terminal
- Data snapshot
- filed:2026-02-13