Intrinsic Value
ATLANTIC AMERICAN CORP · AAME
Conservative
More adverse but historically defensible assumptions.
$2.35
Base
The model's central intrinsic-value estimate.
$1.43
Optimistic
More favorable but historically defensible assumptions.
$2.01
Scenarios are the same model run under different but historically defensible assumptions. They are not price targets. Where a valuation gap is shown it is a comparison with a recent close, not a forecast return; where the price is stale, no gap is shown at all.
Model confidence: 82%Valuation as of Sep 21, 2026Latest filing used Mar 25, 2025
Confidence reflects data completeness, accounting quality, and model reliability. It is not a probability of future price.
Valuation drivers
- Normalized ROE
- 1.5%
- Cost of equity
- 10.24%
- Terminal ROE
- 5.9%
- Terminal growth
- 2.50%
- Book common equity
- $99.6M
- Intrinsic common equity
- $29.2M
- Terminal-value share
- -83.8%
Model notes (11)
- Intrinsic value is below book; the forecast return does not cover the cost of equity (Base case)
- Terminal value is -84% of intrinsic equity value (Base case)
- Forecast payout capped at 100% of earnings left the demonstrated range (Conservative case)
- Intrinsic value is below book; the forecast return does not cover the cost of equity (Conservative case)
- ROTCE unavailable — tangible common equity is not reported(FY2013–FY2024)
- Book-value rollforward residual of 7.7%(FY2018)
- Intrinsic value is below book; the forecast return does not cover the cost of equity (Optimistic case)
- Terminal value is -76% of intrinsic equity value (Optimistic case)
- Combined ratio unavailable — partial insurance expense coverage
- Share count method: ending shares fallback
- Terminal return on equity is below the cost of equity; terminal value is negative
Model details
- Normalization
- V1
- Scenario
- V2
- Confidence
- V1
- Engine version
- valuation-1.0.1-share-units-terminal
- Data snapshot
- filed:2025-03-25